It’s no secret that Portland draws newcomers into its borders every day. In fact, the latest census estimates that two-thirds of the city’s growth is due to migration—mostly people moving in from other parts of the U.S.
While the growth numbers are clear, the reasons that people choose to make Portland their next home are more complicated. Jason Jurjevich, assistant director of Portland State University’s Population Research Center and fellow of the Institute for Sustainable Solutions, tracks population trends and in September plans to release a study detailing the reasons why individuals are moving to Portland and the Pacific Northwest.
Last week, Jurjevich and his colleagues at PSU’s Population Research Center teamed up with the University of Washington’s Climate Impacts Group to explore the implications of climate change as a potential driver of increased migration to the area. The first of its kind in the Pacific Northwest, the event included an open-to-the-public morning session at Ecotrust’s Billy Frank Conference Center that featured experts who spoke about international, domestic, and climate-related migration patterns. Afterward, more than 40 climate scientists, population experts, urban planners, and public policy officials convened at PSU’s Urban Center Building for a workshop aimed at shaping a joint research agenda on the topic.
“We’re trying to identify what we know and what we don’t know about climate change science and population projections in the Northwest,” Jurjevich said. “What are the main obstacles, both in terms of research and policy, to exploring the implications of climate-change-driven migration in the region? And what can we do to ensure that growth challenges resulting from climate migration won’t disproportionately affect marginalized communities who are already here?”
Symposium participants expressed varying levels of apprehension about the significance of climate change as a factor in increasing migration to the area. Those dubious of the significance, like Philip Mote, director of the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute at Oregon State University, say they’re unconvinced that climate change will be a deciding factor in migration decisions. Skeptics also argue that climate change is often already accounted for in what regional planners call their “existing range of uncertainties”—hence any increased migration that may result from climate change-related impacts would be included in this.
But proponents, like former United Nations representative and climate adaptation expert Jose Miguel Guzman who spoke at the symposium, argue that the potential impacts of climate change driven-migration far outweigh what’s already accounted for in regional planning scenarios. “We must push the boundaries of how we incorporate climate change into our projections. What we’re incorporating now is not enough,” Guzman said.
Or, put another way: “Let’s not be alarmist, but let’s not ignore it,” said Robert McLeman, a specialist on the human dimensions of environmental change from Wilfrid Laurier University in Canada. “Let’s think this through. Because it probably will affect us.”
Jurjevich and his colleagues plan to publish a report this fall with key findings from the workshop that aims to chart a path for future work on climate change-related migration to better inform decision makers in the Portland-metro and Puget Sound regions.
The climate change-driven migration symposium was hosted by PSU’s Population Research Center and Institute of Portland Metropolitan Studies in collaboration with UW’s Climate Impacts Group with support from PSU’s Institute for Sustainable Solutions, Metro, King Country, Multnomah Country, Washington County, Puget Sound Regional Council, Washington Office of Financial Management, Oregon State University, The Climate Trust, City of Portland, City of Beaverton, City of Milwaukie, and the Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development.